An Interesting Experimental Opportunity

Paul Huebl at Crimes, Guns, and Videotape makes an interesting observation that suggests an opportunity for criminologists:

What if 30, 000 or even 60,000 armed ordinary Americans traveled to an American city? Riots, bloodshed, skyrocketing crime may result you say? These events happen at least twice a year when the NRA Convention and the Shooting Hunting Outdoor Trade Show holds their events in various larger cities.

Perhaps there would be an increase in gun accidents or other mayhem? To the chagrin of the avowed pacifists, gun-haters and Left Wing political types incidents during these week long events just don’t happen.

Some years ago, I attended the NRA Convention in Phoenix to promote a splendid little book that I had written, called Firing Back. Almost no one bought it, unfortunately. While I was there, the local paper had a column lamenting that the NRA was in town--but at least the rest of America was a bit safer, while all the gun nuts were visiting Phoenix.

Now, if the NRA is actually the dangerous, lunatic fringe that a lot of gun control advocates claim, one would expect that cities that host either the NRA Convention and the SHOT Show would have somewhat elevated rates of violent crime relative to other conventions of comparable size. There have been dozens of NRA Conventions over the last 40 years--and because they are in different cities each year, here's a chance to see if changes in violent crime rates follow the NRA Convention around.