Monday, February 23, 2009

Don't Panic

Don't Panic

Victor Davis Hanson points out that amidst all the chaos and fear, there are some good sides to what is happening to our economy:

Imagine…
Had anyone said a few months ago that the federal government would step in to provide a trillion dollars to subsidize gasoline—to bring it down to $1.85 a gallon nationwide from prices that were exceeding $4 a gallon—we would have had a national debate. And yet as quietly as the Iraq war cooled down and was ignored, so too we think nothing of the hundreds of billions of dollars saved in reduced energy costs. For the average driver who puts 15,000 miles on his car per year, the annual savings (depending on regional prices, miles per gallon, and the amount and type of miles driven) could reach $1500-2000.
Or contemplate again: What if the Chinese had announced three years ago that in a spirit of good will they would begin buying trillions of US Treasury bond at a .5% interest rather than the 3-5% of the recent past. The result, of course, would be a multi-billion-dollar stimulus for the indebted US economy that would enjoy a temporary reprieve from the cost of its indebtedness. (Remember, in the Carter years T-bills and US bonds were paying out 8-12% and more).
He also points out that as bad as this collapse of the stock market has been for those who are on the edge of retirement, or like myself, will be in the next few years, this will be a remarkable buying opportunity for those who are in their 20s and 30s. People like my daughter and son-in-law, who got a bargain on a house. One house that they made an offer on, and didn't get, was being sold by a welder who was going to take a bath selling it, because he had to move to Salt Lake City for a job. People whose 401k is buying stock right now will do extremely well over the next 20-30 years, since everything is dirt cheap right now. I confess that I keep looking for signs of the bottom, so that I can take advantage of bargains in stocks.

There's an aphorism often attributed to one of the Rothschilds, that the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. I'm hoping that it doesn't literally get to that point--but if it does, the stock market will take an enormous dive--and I'll be buying. And if you are smart, you'll take a break from overthrowing the corrupt government long enough to place some buy orders. A good revolutionary should also be a good capitalist.

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