You have probably heard the term "leading economic indicators" on the news, and perhaps didn't know what it meant. "Leading" doesn't mean "most important" but those that often come before a change in the economy, while lagging (or trailing) economic indicators are those that come at the tail end of a change in the economy. There are also "coincident economic indicators"--those that are lined up with the general economy.
The Conference Board's February 19, 2009 report has what may me a positive sign (consistent with the Congressional Budget Office's early January assessment that the economy would recover in the second half of 2009, stimulus bill or not):
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased
0.4 percent...
The LEI increased for the second consecutive month in January, but November
and December values were revised down as new data for manufacturers' new orders
became available. Between July 2008 and January 2009, the LEI decreased 1.9
percent (a -3.7 percent annual rate), faster than the decline of 1.1 percent (a
-2.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the
weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent
months.
This is probably worth keeping an eye on. It's still possible for Obama and the idiots that control Congress to crush the incipient recovery, but at some point, the LEI will stay positive long enough to start buying index funds.
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